Ágens alapú modellek jelentősége a koronavírus-járvány kezelésében
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61177/HISZ.2025.16.1.5Kulcsszavak:
járvány, beavatkozás tervezés, ágens alapú modellekAbsztrakt
A koronavírus-világjárvány rámutatott a dinamikus és pontos járványmodellezési és kezelési eszközök fontosságára. A hagyományos kompartmentális modellek különösen a járvány elején kiemelt szerepet kaptak, azonban korlátaik hamar nyilvánvalóvá váltak. Az ágens alapú modellek több szempontból is előnyösebbek: sokkal részletesebb térbeli felbontásra képesek, és pontosabban tudják reprezentálni a társadalom viselkedésének sokféleségét. Ebben a tanulmányban áttekintjük az ágens alapú modellek előnyeit és a használatukkal kapcsolatos tapasztalatokat, különös tekintettel a korosztályokra vonatkozó intézkedésekre, mozgáskorlátozásra, és más olyan beavatkozásokra, amelyek hagyományos módszerekkel nem leírhatók. Kiemeljük a valós adatokhoz való kalibráció és validáció fontosságát, és ezek kihívásait. Végül bemutatjuk a Pázmány Péter Katolikus Egyetemen létrejött járványmodellező csoport munkáját, tapasztalatait.
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