Évf. 16 szám 1 (2025)
Tanulmányok

Ágens alapú modellek jelentősége a koronavírus-járvány kezelésében

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Reguly István Zoltán
Pázmány Péter Katolikus Egyetem
DOI: https://doi.org/10.61177/HISZ.2025.16.1.5

Megjelent 2025-06-25

Kulcsszavak

  • járvány,
  • beavatkozás tervezés,
  • ágens alapú modellek

Copyright (c) 2025 István Reguly

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Absztrakt

A koronavírus-világjárvány rámutatott a dinamikus és pontos járványmodellezési és kezelési eszközök fontosságára. A hagyományos kompartmentális modellek különösen a járvány elején kiemelt szerepet kaptak, azonban korlátaik hamar nyilvánvalóvá váltak. Az ágens alapú modellek több szempontból is előnyösebbek: sokkal részletesebb térbeli felbontásra képesek, és pontosabban tudják reprezentálni a társadalom viselkedésének sokféleségét. Ebben a tanulmányban áttekintjük az ágens alapú modellek előnyeit és a használatukkal kapcsolatos tapasztalatokat, különös tekintettel a korosztályokra vonatkozó intézkedésekre, mozgáskorlátozásra, és más olyan beavatkozásokra, amelyek hagyományos módszerekkel nem leírhatók. Kiemeljük a valós adatokhoz való kalibráció és validáció fontosságát, és ezek kihívásait. Végül bemutatjuk a Pázmány Péter Katolikus Egyetemen létrejött járványmodellező csoport munkáját, tapasztalatait.

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