Conspiracy Theories and Populism: Analyzing the Trumpian Embrace of Conspiracy Narratives as a Political Instrument
Published 31-12-2023 — Updated on 11-06-2024
Copyright (c) 2023 Busi Dóra
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Abstract
The attack on its Capitol on January 6, 2021, was an unprecedented event in the history of the United States. It was made more peculiar by the fact that the conspiracy theory (CT) that the election had been fraudulent was spread by the outgoing president, Donald Trump, too. The purpose of this research is to show that CTs are suitable political tools for populists, as both are based on the division of society and appeal to alienated, dissatisfied groups. The main conclusion of the research is that populism and CTs spread because of political polarization, which, in turn, these narratives themselves deepen. For this reason, the populist use of conspiracy theories is almost inevitable.
References
- Abts, K., & Baute, S. (2022). Social resentment, blame attribution and Euroscepticism: The role of status insecurity, relative deprivation and powerlessness. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 35(1), 39–64. https://doi.org/10.1080/13511610.2021.1964350
- Aliapoulios, M., Papasavva, A., Ballard, C., De Cristofaro, E., Stringhini, G., Zannettou, S., & Blackburn, J. (2022). The Gospel according to Q: Understanding the QAnon conspiracy from the perspective of canonical information. 16th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2101.08750
- Arato, A. (2019). How we got here? Transition failures, their causes and the populist interest in the constitution. Philosophy & Social Criticism, 45(9-10), 1106–15. https://doi.org/10.1177/0191453719872290
- Baker, J. O., Perry, S. L., & Whitehead, A. L. (2020). Keep America Christian (and white): Christian nationalism, fear of ethnoracial outsiders, and intention to vote for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Sociology of Religion, 81(3), 272–93. https://doi.org/10.1093/socrel/sraa015
- Benedek I. (2021). Riders on the storm: the role of populism in the global crisis of democracy and in the functioning of electoral autocracies. Politics in Central Europe, 17(2), 197–225. https://doi.org/10.2478/pce-2021-0009
- Berlet, C., & Lyons, M. N. (2000). Right-wing populism in America: Too close for comfort. The Guilford Press.
- Berman, S. (2021). The causes of populism in the West. Annual Review of Political Science, 24(1), 71–88. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041719-102503
- Blanco, A., Wolfe, D., & Gardner, A. (2022). Tracking which 2020 election deniers are winning, losing in the midterms. The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2022/election-deniers-midterms/
- Boxell, L., Gentzkow, M., & Shapiro, J. M. (2022). Cross-country trends in affective polarization. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1–60. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01160
- Brewster, J., Palmer, C., & Walid, S. (2022). Misinformation Monitor: August 2022. NewsGuard, https://www.newsguardtech.com/misinformation-monitor/august-2022/
- Bugaric, B., & Kuhelj, A. (2018). Varieties of populism in Europe: Is the rule of law in danger? Hague Journal on the Rule Law, (10), 21–33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40803-018-0075-4
- Clarke, S. (2022). Is there a new conspiracism? Social Epistemology, 37(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/02691728.2022.2057369
- Cordonier, L., Cafiero, F., & Bronner, G. (2021). Why are conspiracy theories more successful in some countries than in others? An exploratory study on Internet users from 22 Western and non-Western countries. Social Science Information, 60(3), 436–56. https://doi.org/10.1177/053901842110189
- Cox, D. A. (2021). After the ballots are counted: Conspiracies, political violence, and American exceptionalism. Survey Center on American Life, https://www.americansurveycenter.org/research/after-the-ballots-are-counted-conspiracies-political-violence-and-american-exceptionalism
- Douglas, K. M., Sutton, R. M., & Cichocka, A. (2017). The psychology of conspiracy theories. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 26(6), 538–42. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721417718261
- Douglas, K. M., Uscinski, J. E., Sutton, R. M., Cichocka, A., Nefes, T., Ang, C. S., & Deravi, F. (2019) Understanding conspiracy theories. Political Psychology, 40(1), 3–35. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12568
- Draca, M., & Schwarz, C. (2018) How polarized are citizens? Measuring ideology from the ground-up. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3154431
- Festinger, L. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford University Press.
- Frimer, J. A., Skitka., L. B., & Motyl, M. (2017). Liberals and conservatives are similarly motivated to avoid exposure to one another’s opinions. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 72, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2017.04.003
- Gabbatt, A. (2020). Trump refuses to disavow QAnon conspiracy theory during town hall. The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/15/qanon-trump-refuses-disavow-conspiracy-theory-town-hall
- Gidron, N., Adams, J., & Horne, W. (2020). American affective polarization in comparative perspective. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108914123
- Gilbert, D. (2021a). Trump has officially declared his embrace of Qanon. VICE, https://www.vice.com/en/article/m7g7y4/trump-qanon-mar-a-lago
- Gilbert, D. (2021b). Trump’s not even pretending to hide his support for QAnon any more. VICE, https://www.vice.com/en/article/epzbya/trump-support-qanon
- Giry, J., & Tika, P. (2021). Conspiracy theories in political science and political theory. In M. Butter & P. Knight (Eds.), Routledge handbook of conspiracy theories (pp. 108–120), Routledge.
- Graff, G. M. (2020). 9/11 and the rise of the new conspiracy theorists. The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/9-11-and-the-rise-of-the-new-conspiracy-theorists-11599768458
- Hofstadter, R. (1964, November). The paranoid style in American politics. Harper’s Magazine, 77–86. https://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/
- Hughes, S., & Machan, L. (2021). It’s a conspiracy: Covid-19 conspiracies link to psychopathy, Machiavellianism and collective narcissism. Personality and Individual Differences, (171), 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2020.110559
- Imhoff, R., Zimmer, F., Klein, O., António, J. H. C., Babinska, M., Bangerter, A., Bilewicz, M., Blanuša, N., Bovan, K., Bužarovska, R., Cichocka, A., Delouvée, S., Douglas, K. M., Dyrendal, A., Etienne, T., Gjoneska, B., Graf, S., Gualda, E., Hirschberger, G., van Prooijen, J-W. (2022). Conspiracy mentality and political orientation across 26 countries. Nature Human Behavior, (6), 392–403. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01258-7
- Iyengar, S. (2022). Fear and loathing in American politics: A review of affective polarisation. In D. Osborne & C. G. Sibley (Eds.), The Cambridge Handbook of Political Psychology (pp. 399–413). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108779104.028
- Keefer, P., Scartascini, C. G., & Vlaicu, R. (2019). Social trust and electoral populism: Explaining the quality of government. SSRN Electronic Journal. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3460914
- Kessler, G. (2021). Trump made 30,573 false or misleading claims as president. Nearly half came in his final year. The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-fact-checker-tracked-trump-claims/2021/01/23/ad04b69a-5c1d-11eb-a976-bad6431e03e2_story.html
- Knobloch-Westerwick, S., Mothes, C., & Polavin, N. (2020). Confirmation bias, ingroup bias, and negativity bias in selective exposure to political information. Communication Research, 47(1), 104–24. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093650217719596
- Kumar, A., & Orr, G. (2020). Inside Trump’s pressure campaign to overturn the election. Politico, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/21/trump-pressure-campaign-overturn-election-449486
- Kunzelman, M. (2020). AP Explains: What’s behind Trump’s town hall answer on QAnon. AP News, https://www.apnews.com/article/trump-town-hall-qanon-explained-b4614edad1aae27a0cbcb9dfe0c0c44c
- Laclau, E. (2005). On populist reason. Verso.
- Layman, G. C., Carsey, T. M., & Horowitz, J. M. (2006). Party polarization in American politics: Characteristics, causes, and consequences. Annual Review of Political Science, 9(1), 83–110. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.070204.105138
- McIntire, M., Yourish, K., & Buchanan, L. (2019). In Trump's Twitter feed: Conspiracy-mongers, racists and spies. The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/02/us/politics/trump-twitter-disinformation.html
- Metzger, M. J., Hartsell, E. H., & Flanagin, A. J. (2020). Cognitive dissonance or credibility? A comparison of two theoretical explanations for selective exposure to partisan news. Communication Research, 47(1), 3–28. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093650215613136
- Mitchell, A., Gottfried, J., Kiley, J., & Matsa, K. E. (2014). Political polarization & media habits. Pew Research Center, https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2014/10/21/political-polarization-media-habits/
- Molloy, D. (2018). What is populism, and what does the term actually mean? BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-43301423
- Montgomery, M. (2017). Post-truth politics? Authenticity, populism and the electoral discourses of Donald Trump. Journal of Language and Politics, 16(4), 619–39. https://doi.org/10.1075/jlp.17023.mon
- Neville-Shepard, R. (2019). Post-presumption argumentation and the post-truth world: on the conspiracy rhetoric of Donald Trump. Argumentation and Advocacy, 55(3), 175–93. https://doi.org/10.1080/10511431.2019.1603027
- Noland, M. (2020). Protectionism under Trump: The China shock, intolerance, and the 'first white President.' Asian Economic Policy Review, 15(1), 31–50. https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12274
- Ostiguy, P., & Roberts, K. M. (2016). Putting Trump in comparative perspective: populism and the politicization of the sociocultural low. The Brown Journal of World Affairs, 23(1), 25–50. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26534708
- Oswald, M., Schäfer, M., & Broda, E. (2022). The new age of populism: Reapproaching a diffuse concept. In M. Oswald (Ed.), The Palgrave Handbook of Populism (pp. 3–27). Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80803-7_1
- Pew Research Center. (2021a). Americans differ from people in other societies over some aspects of U.S. ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ power. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/11/01/americans-differ-from-people-in-other-societies-over-some-aspects-of-u-s-hard-and-soft-power/
- Pew Research Center. (2021b). Behind Biden’s 2020 victory. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/
- Pirro, A. L. P., & Portos, M. (2021). Populism between voting and non-electoral participation. West European Politics, 44(3), 558–84. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2020.1739451
- Rose, J. (2020). Even if it's 'bonkers,' poll finds many believe QAnon and other conspiracy theories. NPR, https://www.npr.org/2020/12/30/951095644/even-if-its-bonkers-poll-finds-many-believe-qanon-and-other-conspiracy-theories
- Schulte-Sasse, L. (1993). Meet Ross Perot: The lasting legacy of Capraesque populism. Cultural Critique, 25, 91–119. https://doi.org/10.2307/1354562
- Seidel, A. L. (2022). Attack on the capitol: evidence of the role of white Christian nationalism. In Christian nationalism at the January 6, 2021, Insurrection, (pp. 25-40). Baptist Joint Committee for Religious Liberty and Freedom From Religion Foundation.
- Singman, B. (2021). Trump slams his VP, says Pence 'didn't have the courage' to decertify results of presidential election. Fox News, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-slams-pence-says-he-didnt-have-the-courage-to-decertify-results-of-presidential-election
- Spruyt, B., Keppens, G., & Van Droogenbroeck, F. (2016). Who supports populism and what attracts people to it? Political Research Quarterly, 69(2), 335–46. https://www.jstor.org/stable/44018014
- Sternisko, A., Cichocka, A., Cislak, A., & Van Bavel, J. J. (2021). National narcissism predicts the belief in and the dissemination of conspiracy theories during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from 56 countries. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 49(1), 48–65. https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672211054947
- Trump, D. J. [@realDonaldTrump]. (2018a). The United States has an $800 Billion Dollar Yearly Trade Deficit because of our “very stupid” trade deals and policies [Tweet]. X. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/969991653393039361
- Trump, D. J. [@realDonaldTrump]. (2018b). Why should I, as President of the United States, allow countries to continue to make Massive Trade Surpluses, as they [Tweet]. X. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005982266496094209
- Trump, D. J. (2020). The President’s news conference. The American Presidency Project, transcribed by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/the-presidents-news-conference-1258
- Trump, D. J. [@realDonaldTrump]. (2021a). Why haven’t they done signature verification in Fulton County, Georgia. Why haven’t they deducted all of the dead people who [Tweet]. X. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1345404682655707136
- Trump, D. J. [@realDonaldTrump]. (2021b). Washington is being inundated with people who don’t want to see an election victory stolen by emboldened Radical Left Democrats [Tweet]. X. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1346578706437963777
- Trump, D. J. [@realDonaldTrump]. (2021c). I am asking for everyone at the U.S. Capitol to remain peaceful. No violence! Remember, WE are the Party of [Tweet]. X. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1346912780700577792
- Trump Twitter Archive. (n.d.). Insults as President. Trump Twitter Archive. https://www.thetrumparchive.com/insights/insults
- Tushnet, M. (2019). Varieties of Populism. German Law Journal, 20(3), 382–89. https://doi.org/10.1017/glj.2019.27
- Uscinski, J. E., & Parent, J. M. (2014). American Conspiracy Theories. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199351800.001.0001
- Watson, H. L. (2017). Andrew Jackson’s Populism. Tennessee Historical Quarterly, 76(3), 218–39. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26540290